Benfica
vs
GIL Vicente
Taça da Liga prediction
Our model says: Benfica 2–0 GIL Vicente
The model makes it 69% Benfica, 20% draw, 11% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Benfica 2.45, GIL Vicente 0.71.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Benfica are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitória SC.
- GIL Vicente have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Moreirense.
- Last 6 meetings: Benfica 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended Benfica 3–1 GIL Vicente.
Chance to go through
Taça da Liga Quarter-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Benfica75%
- Level after ninety minutes16%
- GIL Vicente9%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça da Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 69% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Benfica vs GIL Vicente
Benfica
- W2-0Vitória SC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
GIL Vicente
- W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026
- D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
What these results say
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- GIL Vicente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Benfica vs GIL Vicente
- 13 September 2026Benfica 3–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 2 March 2026GIL Vicente 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 26 September 2025Benfica 2–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 28 March 2025GIL Vicente 0–3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 28 September 2024Benfica 5–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 4 February 2024Benfica 3–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Benfica and GIL Vicente
Benfica
No leading scorers listed yet.
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Benfica carry a model rating of 7.23 against 6.77 for GIL Vicente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.45 goals for Benfica and 0.71 for GIL Vicente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica rate 1.62 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GIL Vicente rate 0.78 and 0.93.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,790 correct results out of 3,756 settled predictions (48%), with 377 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Benfica against 0.71 for GIL Vicente. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/0.93 for GIL Vicente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benfica at home · GIL Vicente away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Benfica 8, GIL Vicente 7.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); GIL Vicente have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Benfica
- vs Alverca2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 70%
- vs Lech Poznan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 64%
- at Estrela8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 65%
GIL Vicente
- vs Vitória SC2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- at Santa Clara8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Estoril29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 47%
- at Estrela6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.