AFC Wimbledon
vs
Wycombe
League One prediction
Our model says: AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Wycombe
The model makes it 34% AFC Wimbledon, 28% draw, 38% Wycombe — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.31, Wycombe 1.42.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Wycombe: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AFC Wimbledon are 11th on 12 points from 9 games; Wycombe are 15th on 10 points from 9 games — League One.
- AFC Wimbledon are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Plymouth.
- Wycombe have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Luton.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 January 2026, ended Wycombe 2–0 AFC Wimbledon.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wycombe at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe
AFC Wimbledon
- L1-2away to Plymouth10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bromley7 September 2026
Wycombe
- L1-4Luton10 October 2026
- D2-2Reading26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Wigan19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Leyton Orient12 September 2026
- D3-3Milton Keynes Dons5 September 2026
What these results say
- AFC Wimbledon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AFC Wimbledon had two goals or fewer.
- Wycombe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wycombe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wycombe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AFC Wimbledon
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
Wycombe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe
- 4 January 2026Wycombe 2–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 27 September 2025AFC Wimbledon 2–1 WycombeLeague One
- 20 August 2024AFC Wimbledon 1–0 WycombeEFL Trophy
- 18 November 2023Wycombe 1–0 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy
- 18 April 2022AFC Wimbledon 1–1 WycombeLeague One
- 11 December 2021Wycombe 2–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One
Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Wycombe
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley41
Wycombe
No player in League One's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AFC Wimbledon carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.26 for Wycombe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.42 for Wycombe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AFC Wimbledon rate 0.41 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wycombe rate 0.63 and 2.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AFC Wimbledon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AFC Wimbledon a 0% chance of the title and Wycombe 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wycombe the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon against 1.42 for Wycombe. AFC Wimbledon's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.11 for Wycombe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AFC Wimbledon at home · Wycombe away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: AFC Wimbledon 9, Wycombe 9.
AFC Wimbledon score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Wycombe have let in 5 there.
Wycombe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); AFC Wimbledon have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AFC Wimbledon
- at Stockport County31 Oct · League Onewin 18%
- vs Blackpool14 Nov · League Onewin 34%
Wycombe
- vs Burton Albion31 Oct · League Onewin 44%
- vs Huddersfield14 Nov · League Onewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.