Cambridge United
vs
Plymouth
League One prediction
Our model says: Cambridge United 2–1 Plymouth
The model makes it 38% Cambridge United, 27% draw, 35% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cambridge United 1.50, Plymouth 1.43.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Cambridge United and Plymouth are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cambridge United are 5th on 16 points from 9 games; Plymouth are top on 19 points from 10 games — League One.
- Cambridge United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Blackpool.
- Plymouth have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to AFC Wimbledon.
- Last 6 meetings: Cambridge United 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2023, ended Plymouth 3–1 Cambridge United.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cambridge United vs Plymouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cambridge United at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cambridge United vs Plymouth
Cambridge United
- W1-0Blackpool10 October 2026
- D1-1AFC Wimbledon26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Oxford United19 September 2026
- W2-1Reading12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burton Albion5 September 2026
Plymouth
- W2-1AFC Wimbledon10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Leyton Orient3 October 2026
- L0-1Burton Albion26 September 2026
- W4-2away to Blackpool19 September 2026
- W3-0Barnsley12 September 2026
What these results say
- Cambridge United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plymouth won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Plymouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cambridge United
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
Plymouth
Chance to finish in the top four · 53% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cambridge United vs Plymouth
- 22 April 2023Plymouth 3–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 10 December 2022Cambridge United 0–0 PlymouthLeague One
- 22 February 2022Cambridge United 2–0 PlymouthLeague One
- 17 August 2021Plymouth 1–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 22 February 2020Plymouth 0–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
- 7 December 2019Cambridge United 1–0 PlymouthLeague Two
Leading scorers: Cambridge United and Plymouth
Cambridge United
GoalsAssists
- B. Knight31
Plymouth
GoalsAssists
- A. Pepple40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cambridge United carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.42 for Plymouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Cambridge United and 1.43 for Plymouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cambridge United rate 0.59 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plymouth rate 0.70 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Plymouth, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cambridge United a 5.7% chance of the title and Plymouth 17.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cambridge United the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cambridge United against 1.43 for Plymouth. Cambridge United's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.67 for Plymouth.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cambridge United at home · Plymouth away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Cambridge United 9, Plymouth 10.
Plymouth score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Cambridge United have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cambridge United
- at Sheffield Wednesday27 Oct · League Onewin 32%
- at Leyton Orient31 Oct · League Onewin 36%
- at Luton14 Nov · League Onewin 30%
Plymouth
- vs Reading31 Oct · League Onewin 43%
- at Sheffield Wednesday14 Nov · League Onewin 36%
- vs Peterborough21 Nov · League Onewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.