The model on 19 October: 23 out of 48
Of the 48 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Monday 19 October 2026, it called the result of 23 (48%). It named the exact scoreline 8 times. Across all 4,325 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
What stood out
At 48% the day was in line with the model's running rate. The result it least expected was Omonia Nicosia 2-2 Olympiakos: it had given a draw 18%. Its best competition of the day was Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) (3 of 3), its weakest Premier League (Egypt) (1 of 3).
By competition
- 1. Lig: 2 of 4
- Eerste Divisie: 1 of 3
- Persian Gulf Pro League: 3 of 3
- Premier League (Belarus): 2 of 3
- Premier League (Egypt): 1 of 3
- Pro League: 2 of 3
- 1. Division: 0 of 2
- Liga I: 1 of 2
- 22 other competitions: 11 of 25
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Omonia Nicosia 2-2 Olympiakos: the model had Omonia Nicosia at 72%.
- Jong PSV U21 0-1 Dordrecht: the model had Jong PSV U21 at 54%.
- Universitatea Cluj 2-2 Arges Pitesti: the model had Universitatea Cluj at 53%.
Exact scorelines
- Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk: the exact score it named, with Dinamo Minsk at 70%.
- Bursaspor 2-0 Pendikspor: the exact score it named, with Bursaspor at 65%.
- Esteghlal FC 1-0 Gol Gohar: the exact score it named, with Esteghlal FC at 55%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
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