The model on 4 October: 11 out of 21
Of the 21 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Sunday 4 October 2026, it called the result of 11 (52%). It named the exact scoreline 7 times. Across all 3,039 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 5 of 8
- Segunda División: 1 of 5
- Primera A: 1 of 3
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 2 of 2
- Eerste Divisie: 1 of 1
- Erovnuli Liga: 0 of 1
- Segunda Liga: 1 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Castellón 1-1 AD Ceuta FC: the model had Castellón at 61%.
- Rep. Of Ireland 1-1 Israel: the model had Rep. Of Ireland at 48%.
- Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid: the model had Las Palmas at 47%.
Exact scorelines
- Netherlands 2-1 Serbia: the exact score it named, with Netherlands at 48%.
- Huracan 1-0 Aldosivi: the exact score it named, with Huracan at 46%.
- Wales 0-1 Denmark: the exact score it named, with Denmark at 43%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.