The model on 21 September: 4 out of 10
Of the 10 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Monday 21 September 2026, it called the result of 4 (40%). It named the exact scoreline once. Across all 2,810 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- Liga MX: 0 of 3
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 2 of 3
- Erovnuli Liga: 1 of 2
- Liga I: 1 of 2
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Rustavi 0-2 FC Iberia 1999: the model had Rustavi at 50%.
- Club Queretaro 1-1 Leon: the model had Club Queretaro at 46%.
- Toluca 2-3 Santos Laguna: the model had Toluca at 45%.
Exact scorelines
- Petrolul Ploiesti 2-0 Csikszereda: the exact score it named, with Petrolul Ploiesti at 63%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.