Union Santa Fe
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 56% Union Santa Fe, 20% draw, 24% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 1.79, 5.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 2.34, Sarmiento Junin 1.49.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Union Santa Fe
- L1-2Central Cordoba de Santiago11 August 2026
- W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Platense25 July 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba12 May 2026
Sarmiento Junin
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona9 goals1 assists
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.54 for Sarmiento Junin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Union Santa Fe L-D-L-W-L; Sarmiento Junin L-L-L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.34 goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.49 for Sarmiento Junin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 0.82 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarmiento Junin rate 0.81 and 1.51.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union Santa Fe the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 1.49 for Sarmiento Junin. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.51 for Sarmiento Junin.