Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
vs
Farul Constanta
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 57% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 22% draw, 21% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2.00, Farul Constanta 1.14.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- D1-1away to Corvinul Hunedoara2 August 2026
- W1-0Universitatea Cluj26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Rapid20 July 2026
Farul Constanta
- W3-2Csikszereda8 August 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB3 August 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Farul Constanta | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No league goals recorded yet.
Farul Constanta
- Iustin Doicaru3 goals1 assists
- E. Rădăslăvescu2 goals2 assists
- M. Ahlinvi2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.37 for Farul Constanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe L-W-D; Farul Constanta L-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.14 for Farul Constanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.51 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Farul Constanta rate 0.76 and 2.08.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Farul Constanta, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe against 1.14 for Farul Constanta. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/2.08 for Farul Constanta.