Radnik Surdulica
vs
Novi Pazar
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 47% Radnik Surdulica, 22% draw, 31% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Radnik Surdulica 2.12, Novi Pazar 1.71.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Radnik Surdulica
- D0-0away to OFK Beograd25 July 2026
- D1-1Mladost Lucani19 July 2026
Novi Pazar
- L0-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda8 August 2026
- L1-4OFK Beograd1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Mladost Lucani26 July 2026
- W1-0Radnicki 192318 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Radnik Surdulica | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radnik Surdulica carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.2 for Novi Pazar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Radnik Surdulica D-D; Novi Pazar W-D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Radnik Surdulica and 1.71 for Novi Pazar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnik Surdulica rate 0.53 in attack and 2.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Novi Pazar rate 0.57 and 2.12.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Novi Pazar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnik Surdulica the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Radnik Surdulica against 1.71 for Novi Pazar. Radnik Surdulica's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.12 for Novi Pazar.