Mladost Lucani
vs
FK Partizan
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 60% Mladost Lucani, 24% draw, 16% FK Partizan — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Mladost Lucani 1.85, FK Partizan 0.85.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mladost Lucani
- D0-0away to Železničar Pančevo3 August 2026
- D0-0Novi Pazar26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Radnik Surdulica19 July 2026
FK Partizan
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd2 August 2026
- W3-1away to Macva26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Zemun18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | FK Partizan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Mladost Lucani
No league goals recorded yet.
FK Partizan
- M. Vukotić1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mladost Lucani carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.08 for FK Partizan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Mladost Lucani D-D-D; FK Partizan D-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Mladost Lucani and 0.85 for FK Partizan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mladost Lucani rate 0.33 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Partizan rate 0.59 and 2.96.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Partizan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mladost Lucani the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Mladost Lucani against 0.85 for FK Partizan. Mladost Lucani's attack/defence rating is 0.33/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.96 for FK Partizan.