Notts County
vs
Stockport County
League One prediction
Our model says: Notts County 0–1 Stockport County
The model makes it 30% Notts County, 28% draw, 42% Stockport County — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Notts County 1.18, Stockport County 1.49.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Stockport County: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Notts County are 22nd on 7 points from 8 games; Stockport County are 3rd on 16 points from 9 games — League One.
- Notts County have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Oxford United.
- Stockport County are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Barnsley.
- Last 6 meetings: Stockport County 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 April 2024, ended Notts County 2–5 Stockport County.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Notts County vs Stockport County
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stockport County at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Notts County vs Stockport County
Notts County
- L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
Stockport County
- W3-1Barnsley10 October 2026
- W1-0Peterborough26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday19 September 2026
- L3-4Leicester12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Wigan5 September 2026
What these results say
- Notts County did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Notts County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
- Stockport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Notts County
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
Stockport County
Chance to finish in the top four · 49% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Stockport County
- 16 April 2024Notts County 2–5 Stockport CountyLeague Two
- 22 December 2023Stockport County 2–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 15 March 2022Stockport County 3–0 Notts CountyNational League
- 23 October 2021Notts County 2–1 Stockport CountyNational League
- 23 February 2021Stockport County 0–0 Notts CountyNational League
- 16 January 2021Stockport County 1–2 Notts CountyFA Trophy
Leading scorers: Notts County and Stockport County
Notts County
No player in League One's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton71
- J. Diamond42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Notts County carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.42 for Stockport County. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Notts County and 1.49 for Stockport County. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Notts County rate 0.47 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stockport County rate 0.70 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Notts County a 0.3% chance of the title and Stockport County 14.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stockport County the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Notts County against 1.49 for Stockport County. Notts County's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.65 for Stockport County.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Notts County at home · Stockport County away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Notts County 8, Stockport County 9.
Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Stockport County have let in 2 there.
Stockport County score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Notts County have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Notts County
- at Mansfield Town31 Oct · League Onewin 26%
Stockport County
- at Oxford United27 Oct · League Onewin 30%
- vs AFC Wimbledon31 Oct · League Onewin 58%
- vs Reading14 Nov · League Onewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.