Estoril
vs
Arouca
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 43% Estoril, 24% draw, 33% Arouca — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Estoril 1.71, Arouca 1.47.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Estoril
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
- D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026
Arouca
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Vitória SC8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| 3 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Arouca
- 6 April 2026Arouca 3–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 7 November 2025Estoril 4–3 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2025Arouca 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2024Estoril 4–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 20 January 2024Estoril 1–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 13 August 2023Arouca 4–3 EstorilPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers
Estoril
No league goals recorded yet.
Arouca
- Barbero2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Estoril carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.74 for Arouca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Estoril D-L-L; Arouca W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Estoril and 1.47 for Arouca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estoril rate 0.86 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arouca rate 0.84 and 1.05.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arouca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estoril the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Estoril against 1.47 for Arouca. Estoril's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.05 for Arouca.