Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Arda Kardzhali
First League prediction
The model makes it 17% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 27% draw, 56% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 5.88, 3.70 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.73, Arda Kardzhali 1.55.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-2away to Levski Sofia7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Arda Kardzhali
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
- D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali
- 4 July 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2026Arda Kardzhali 4–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 8 May 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 30 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 22 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 0–4 Lokomotiv PlovdivCup
- 6 December 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
The two sides
Lokomotiv Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.53 for Arda Kardzhali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lokomotiv Plovdiv L-W-L-L; Arda Kardzhali D-W-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.73 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.55 for Arda Kardzhali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.31 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arda Kardzhali rate 0.65 and 1.24.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv against 1.55 for Arda Kardzhali. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.31/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.24 for Arda Kardzhali.