Lech Poznan
vs
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa prediction
The model makes it 60% Lech Poznan, 20% draw, 20% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.35, Jagiellonia 1.33.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Jagiellonia
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Lech Poznan
No league goals recorded yet.
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
- Sergio Lozano1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lech Poznan carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.57 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Lech Poznan D-W-W; Jagiellonia W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.33 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lech Poznan rate 0.85 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.82 and 1.46.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jagiellonia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Lech Poznan against 1.33 for Jagiellonia. Lech Poznan's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.46 for Jagiellonia.