FK Crvena Zvezda
vs
Cukaricki
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 60% FK Crvena Zvezda, 20% draw, 20% Cukaricki — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.33, Cukaricki 1.28.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W2-0Novi Pazar8 August 2026
- W3-1Vojvodina26 July 2026
- W5-0Macva17 July 2026
Cukaricki
- W3-0Radnicki 19231 August 2026
- W2-0away to Radnicki NIS25 July 2026
- L0-1IMT Novi Beograd19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 9 |
| 4 | Cukaricki | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov3 goals1 assists
- Bruno Duarte1 goals3 assists
- A. Katai1 goals2 assists
Cukaricki
- U. Miladinović3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FK Crvena Zvezda carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.48 for Cukaricki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Crvena Zvezda W-W-W; Cukaricki L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 1.28 for Cukaricki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.79 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cukaricki rate 0.74 and 1.56.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda against 1.28 for Cukaricki. FK Crvena Zvezda's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.56 for Cukaricki.