Iraklis 1908
vs
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 32% Iraklis 1908, 25% draw, 43% Asteras Tripolis — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Iraklis 1908 1.39, Asteras Tripolis 1.65.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
The two sides
Iraklis 1908 carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.7 for Asteras Tripolis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.65 for Asteras Tripolis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Iraklis 1908 rate 0.59 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Asteras Tripolis rate 0.93 and 1.25.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Asteras Tripolis the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 against 1.65 for Asteras Tripolis. Iraklis 1908's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.25 for Asteras Tripolis.