Panathinaikos
vs
PAOK
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 36% Panathinaikos, 20% draw, 44% PAOK — fair odds of 2.78, 5.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.04, PAOK 2.24.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs PAOK
- 17 May 2026Panathinaikos 2–2 PAOKSuper League 1
- 5 April 2026PAOK 0–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 11 February 2026PAOK 2–0 PanathinaikosCup
- 4 February 2026Panathinaikos 0–1 PAOKCup
- 21 December 2025PAOK 2–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 9 November 2025Panathinaikos 2–1 PAOKSuper League 1
The two sides
Panathinaikos carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.61 for PAOK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Panathinaikos W-D-D-D; PAOK W-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Panathinaikos and 2.24 for PAOK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panathinaikos rate 0.67 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAOK rate 0.96 and 1.61.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 78% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 2.24 for PAOK. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.61 for PAOK.