IMT Novi Beograd
vs
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 38% IMT Novi Beograd, 36% draw, 26% Mladost Lucani — fair odds of 2.63, 2.78 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 0.92, Mladost Lucani 0.72.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IMT Novi Beograd
- L0-1away to Macva9 August 2026
- W2-1away to FK Partizan2 August 2026
- W4-0Zemun25 July 2026
- W1-0away to Cukaricki19 July 2026
Mladost Lucani
- D2-2Cukaricki9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Železničar Pančevo3 August 2026
- D0-0Novi Pazar26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Radnik Surdulica19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 | Mladost Lucani | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Mladost Lucani
- 1 July 2026Mladost Lucani 1–0 IMT Novi BeogradFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2026IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 23 November 2025IMT Novi Beograd 1–3 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 20 July 2025Mladost Lucani 1–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 9 March 2025IMT Novi Beograd 3–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 4 December 2024Mladost Lucani 1–2 IMT Novi BeogradCup
Leading scorers
IMT Novi Beograd
No league goals recorded yet.
Mladost Lucani
- João2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
IMT Novi Beograd carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.45 for Mladost Lucani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): IMT Novi Beograd W-W-W-L; Mladost Lucani D-D-D-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.72 for Mladost Lucani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.44 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mladost Lucani rate 0.44 and 1.11.
That points to 23% for over two and a half goals and 32% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (20%), 1-0 (17%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 0.72 for Mladost Lucani. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.11 for Mladost Lucani.