Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 42% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 24% draw, 34% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1.75, Sarmiento Junin 1.55.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
No league goals recorded yet.
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.52 for Sarmiento Junin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto L-D-L-L-D; Sarmiento Junin L-L-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.55 for Sarmiento Junin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.58 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarmiento Junin rate 0.82 and 1.60.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto against 1.55 for Sarmiento Junin. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.6 for Sarmiento Junin.