Alverca
vs
SC Braga
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 44% Alverca, 32% draw, 24% SC Braga — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Alverca 1.15, SC Braga 0.77.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Alverca
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto9 August 2026
SC Braga
- D2-2away to Moreirense9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Alverca vs SC Braga
- 25 January 2026SC Braga 5–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Alverca 0–3 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alverca carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.72 for SC Braga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Alverca L-D-L; SC Braga D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Alverca and 0.77 for SC Braga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alverca rate 0.70 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Braga rate 0.60 and 0.87.
That points to 30% for over two and a half goals and 37% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (16%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SC Braga, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alverca the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Alverca against 0.77 for SC Braga. Alverca's attack/defence rating is 0.7/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/0.87 for SC Braga.