Botev Plovdiv
vs
Levski Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 25% Botev Plovdiv, 21% draw, 54% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 4.00, 4.76 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.57, Levski Sofia 2.33.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Botev Plovdiv
- W3-2Spartak Varna10 August 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna1 August 2026
- L2-3away to CSKA Sofia27 July 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia21 July 2026
Levski Sofia
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
- 15 February 2026Levski Sofia 3–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 30 September 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–1 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 30 March 2025Levski Sofia 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 5 October 2024Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 12 November 2023Levski Sofia 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 22 July 2023Botev Plovdiv 1–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Botev Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.59 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Botev Plovdiv D-L-W-W; Levski Sofia W-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 2.33 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Plovdiv rate 0.84 in attack and 3.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.53 and 0.99.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv against 2.33 for Levski Sofia. Botev Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.84/3.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/0.99 for Levski Sofia.