Aris Thessalonikis
vs
OFI
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 52% Aris Thessalonikis, 26% draw, 22% OFI — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aris Thessalonikis 1.65, OFI 0.98.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI
- 10 May 2026Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 OFISuper League 1
- 3 May 2026OFI 0–2 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 22 March 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–2 OFISuper League 1
- 4 October 2025OFI 3–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 3 May 2025OFI 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 5 April 2025Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 OFISuper League 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aris Thessalonikis carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.57 for OFI. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.98 for OFI. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.72 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFI rate 0.69 and 1.21.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis against 0.98 for OFI. Aris Thessalonikis's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.21 for OFI.