Kifisia
vs
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 39% Kifisia, 27% draw, 34% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kifisia 1.37, AEK Athens FC 1.26.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Kifisia vs AEK Athens FC
- 22 March 2026AEK Athens FC 3–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 5 October 2025Kifisia 2–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 18 February 2024AEK Athens FC 3–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 4 November 2023Kifisia 1–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 11 January 2023AEK Athens FC 3–0 KifisiaCup
- 15 December 2022Kifisia 0–2 AEK Athens FCCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kifisia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.75 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Kifisia and 1.26 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kifisia rate 0.77 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 0.75 and 0.94.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kifisia the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kifisia against 1.26 for AEK Athens FC. Kifisia's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/0.94 for AEK Athens FC.