Maghreb Fès
vs
CR Khemis Zemamra
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Maghreb Fès 1–0 CR Khemis Zemamra
The model makes it 50% Maghreb Fès, 27% draw, 23% CR Khemis Zemamra — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Maghreb Fès 1.89, CR Khemis Zemamra 0.89.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Maghreb Fès vs CR Khemis Zemamra
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Maghreb Fès wins, grey are draws, red are CR Khemis Zemamra wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maghreb Fès at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
The two sides
Maghreb Fès carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.22 for CR Khemis Zemamra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.89 for CR Khemis Zemamra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maghreb Fès rate 0.58 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CR Khemis Zemamra rate 0.56 and 2.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maghreb Fès the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Maghreb Fès against 0.89 for CR Khemis Zemamra. Maghreb Fès's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2 for CR Khemis Zemamra.