Hradec Králové
vs
Plzen
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 56% Hradec Králové, 25% draw, 19% Plzen — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Hradec Králové 1.71, Plzen 0.88.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hradec Králové
- W2-1Baník Ostrava9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
Plzen
- D5-5away to Teplice8 August 2026
- D1-1Zbrojovka Brno1 August 2026
- L1-3Slovan Liberec25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hradec Králové | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Hradec Králové
No league goals recorded yet.
Plzen
- C. Kabongo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hradec Králové carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.81 for Plzen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hradec Králové W-D-W; Plzen L-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Hradec Králové and 0.88 for Plzen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hradec Králové rate 1.04 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plzen rate 0.77 and 0.87.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hradec Králové against 0.88 for Plzen. Hradec Králové's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.87 for Plzen.