UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 4 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Larne vs Saburtalo

Inver Park, Larne

The model makes it 70% Larne, 18% draw, 12% Saburtalo — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Larne 2.41, Saburtalo 0.93.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

55%

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines2-0 10%2-1 10%1-1 8%

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Larne the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Larne against 0.93 for Saburtalo. Larne's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.24 for Saburtalo.