HNK Rijeka
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 42% HNK Rijeka, 29% draw, 29% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HNK Rijeka 1.29, Dinamo Zagreb 1.04.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Rijeka
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 13 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK RijekaCup
- 18 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 8 February 2026HNK Rijeka 0–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 1 November 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 HNK RijekaHNL
- 16 August 2025HNK Rijeka 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 27 April 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei1 goals
- J. Lasickas1 goals
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Rijeka carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.62 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Rijeka W; Dinamo Zagreb W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.04 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Rijeka rate 0.60 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.71 and 1.14.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Zagreb, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for HNK Rijeka against 1.04 for Dinamo Zagreb. HNK Rijeka's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.14 for Dinamo Zagreb.