Chapecoense
vs
Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 35% Chapecoense, 23% draw, 42% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.86, 4.35 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.65, Vasco da Gama 1.82.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
- 5 February 2026Vasco da Gama 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 31 July 2022Vasco da Gama 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 23 April 2022Chapecoense 0–0 Vasco da GamaSerie B
- 8 December 2019Vasco da Gama 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 14 September 2019Chapecoense 1–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 26 August 2018Vasco da Gama 3–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Chapecoense against 1.82 for Vasco da Gama. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.09 for Vasco da Gama.